Caerphilly byelection results in full
Andrew Sparrow
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Adam Fulton.
The last time I was writing about Lindsay Whittle was more than 30 years ago. My first job in journalism was on the South Wales Echo, where I spent more than a year in the early 1990s in the Caerphilly office covering the Rhymney Valley. Whittle was leader of the Plaid group on the council at the time. Even then he was a veteran (he was first elected as a councillor in the 1970s) and he was a useful contact (friendly, approachable, decent, public-spirited), but not that useful, because Labour ran south Wales, and the idea that Plaid might ever replace them seemed fanciful.
Now Plaid seems to be on course to lead the government in the Senedd after the elections next year. Polling for the Senedd elections suggests Plaid and Reform UK will be the biggest parties, but neither are likely to get an outright majority, and Plaid has a much easier path to power, in some sort of alliance with Labour.
And Plaid’s prospects look even stronger if it can mobilise an anti-Reform vote, which is what seems to have happened in Caerphilly. A Survation poll earlier this month suggested Reform was narrowly ahead in the byelection. In the event, Plaid won comfortably. This is what the New Statesman’s Ben Walker posted on social media as the votes were being counted last night.
This is insane. Turnout 50%. Up on 41% in 21. Young Plaid organiser telling me of all the texts and DMs from apolitical friends that they’re turning out to stop Reform.
Here are the full results from PA Media.
Lindsay Whittle (PC) 15,961 (47.38%, +18.98%)
Llyr Powell (Reform) 12,113 (35.96%, +34.25%)
Richard Tunnicliffe (Lab) 3,713 (11.02%, -34.94%)
Gareth Potter (C) 690 (2.05%, -15.29%)
Gareth Hughes (Green) 516 (1.53%)
Steve Aicheler (LD) 497 (1.48%, -1.25%)
Anthony Cook (Gwlad) 117 (0.35%)
Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79 (0.23%)
PC maj 3,848 (11.42%)
26.96% swing Lab to PC
Electorate 66,895; Turnout 33,686 (50.36%, +6.52%)
2021: Lab maj 5,078 (17.56%) – Turnout 28,914 (43.84%)
David (Lab) 13,289 (45.96%); Jewell (PC) 8,211 (28.40%); Mayfield (C)
5,013 (17.34%); Jones (Abolish) 1,119 (3.87%); Aicheler (LD) 787
(2.72%); Price (Reform) 495 (1.71%)
Key events
Reform UK’s MP for Ashfield – and chief whip of their five-strong Westminster group – Lee Anderson, has delivered his verdict on the Caerphilly result via social media, saying he was “disappointed”, but that Reform “will be back” in Wales. He posted:
Disappointed but….
We came second last night in Caerphilly but Reform UK soared from 500 votes a few years ago to over 12,000 yesterday. The Labour vote collapsed to 11% after being in control for over 100 years.
Yes, we know a lot of Labour voters voted tactically for Plaid to stop us winning. That’s politics and no complaints here, we have to win in the system we operate in. Yesterday was first past the post so tactical voting works.
Next year’s Senedd elections are proportional representation, so if Labour voters vote Plaid again it could see the Labour party wiped out altogether.
We polled 35% so we are in a good place in Wales. We will not give up on our Welsh cousins and a huge well done to Llyr Powell and our great team in Caerphilly. We will be back.
We are expecting Plaid Cymru to host a press event to celebrate Lindsay Whittle’s by-election outside Caerphilly Castle shortly. I will bring you any key lines that emerge.
Martin Belam
Conservative party deputy chairman Matt Vickers has seized on the Caerphilly Senedd constituency as a chance to brand the government is “disastrous”.
Speaking on Sky News, PA Media reports he said:
People often vote to send a message in a by-election. And people have told Labour that they’re not happy with them. They’ve sent that message using the by-election.
-
It is Martin Belam with you now. Do feel free to contact me on martin.belam@theguardian.com if you spot typos, errors or think there is an omission.
What commentators are saying about significance of Caerphilly byelection result
Andrew Sparrow
Peter Walker’s take on the Caerphilly result is here.
And here is a round-up of what some other commentators are saying about it.
From Andrew Marr, the LBC broadcaster and New Statesman political editor
Caerphilly shows the wildness and unpredictable politics of 5-party competition coming to all of us soon
From the BBC’s political editor Chris Mason in his analysis
Labour, so long the victor of so many a south Wales political contest, humbled, pummelled, crushed – attracting just 11% of voters.
The Conservatives, so often the victor of many a UK-wide election – 2%.
Yes, you read that right – the two big beasts of Westminster politics managed just 13% of the vote between them.
From the New Statesman’s analysis by Harry Clarke-Ezzidio and Ben Walker
If Reform came as far as it did in Caerphilly so quickly, could it possibly, in time, win everywhere? Perhaps this isn’t the by-election to extrapolate from. As one of the whitest boroughs in all Britain, how telling can Caerphilly be about the rest of the country? A broader take is that Reform’s staunch progress here does blow open many seats in Britain – but not all. What is clear is that the old arithmetic, and assumptions, are done. Supposed safe seats are no longer safe seats. What were once nailed on types of voters are now up for grabs. The fever-pitch political scramble over Britain’s white voters in former industrial areas is reflective of this. Key to Labour winning again – everywhere – is getting many of these people back on side …
Caerphilly presents a massive headache for both Eluned Morgan, the Welsh Labour leader, and Keir Starmer. This isn’t some freak by-election; it is national opinion polling laid bare. Labour would do well to heed to lessons from this result. It didn’t have to be like this. Labour insiders hold their heads in their hands at how Plaid stole a march on them. “We lost the narrative on this one,” one said. If Caerphilly proves one thing, it is that narrative is everything. On every leaflet put out by Plaid the two-horse was not between the incumbent and challenger, but between challenger and challenger. This by-election result perhaps proves that such a notion isn’t partisan propaganda, but a new reality. That in Wales, now, it’s either Plaid or Reform. Not Labour.
From the politics professor Rob Ford on Bluesky
Obviously the focus is on Plaid, Reform and Labour but the Conservatives also fell drastically – to 2% and a lost deposit. Hardly a ringing endorsement from the Welsh valleys for their recent turn to the far right
Though 2% probably is an accurate reflection of support for their “Idi Amin plus plus” immigration policy.
From a thread on the results by Luke Tryl, the More in Common pollster
One thing I have heard in a few Welsh focus groups is people don’t like the fact there isn’t a Welsh reform leader. Worth not overplaying this (Reform got 36% without one) but at the margins it could be enough to alienate some voters still worried the party is overly “English”
From Will Hayward in a post on his Welsh politics Substack newsletter
This is a disaster for Reform. They poured everything into this. They banked on getting disengaged voters out to vote. But the problem with disengaged voters is they are, well, disengaged. They haven’t managed to mobilise their vote in the way they hoped.
This bodes very badly for them come the Senedd election next May. In Caerphilly they were able to spend a lot of time and resources making sure that as many of their voters as possible not only voted for them, but also were registered in the first place. Yet this wasn’t enough. When they are competing across all of Wales this will be even harder.
From Keiran Pedley from the pollsters Ipsos UK
Couple of hot takes from me:
1) Collapse in Labour vote extremely ominous ahead of Welsh elections next year
2) Could anti Reform tactical voting be a key factor at next GE?
That is all from me for today. Martin Belam is taking over now.
Alun Davies, the Labour MS (member of the Senedd) for Blaenau Gwent, told the Today programme that the Caerphilly result suggested the UK government was neglecting Wales. He said:
As I was talking to people in Caerphilly over the last two months – it became very clear to me that Welsh Labour is most successful when it is both Welsh and Labour.
Rooted in our Labour values, the NHS was born in my hometown and that represents the social justice values which are part of who we are. People felt we had moved away from that. People didn’t like the way we spoke, and sometimes dehumanised, refugees …
People know that the funding formula doesn’t work for Wales, they also know it works for Scotland and it has been amended for Northern Ireland and the UK government wouldn’t treat either Scotland or Northern Ireland in the way they treat Wales.
Here is Peter Walker’s analysis of the significance of the Caerphillly byelection result.
And here is his conclusion.
The key lesson from Caerphilly for every political leader, if not necessarily a new one: UK politics is moving at speed, with voter loyalties shifting and atomising in unprecedented ways. Those who cannot adapt will be crushed.
Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds dismisses claim Caerphilly result is specific ‘defeat for Starmerism’
In an interview on the Today programme, Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister and MP for Torfaen in south Wales, was asked about the claim that the byelection result was a “defeat for Starmerism”, but not for the Labour government in Cardiff. (See 7.10am.)
At first Thomas-Symonds said that he did not like responding to anonymous quotes, but that he accepted voters felt “frustration about the pace of change”.
When Justin Webb, the presenter, said that was exactly the point being made by the source who delivered the quote (associating “Starmerism” with change being too slow), Thomas-Symonds replied:
I don’t accept the point that’s being put in that quote at all.
I think politics is about what people face, the challenges they face in their everyday lives.
We always knew coming into government in July 2024, I think it’s an inheritance that’s probably the worst since 1945, in terms of the economic backdrop and the state of our public services together. We knew it was going to take time.
What the message that we’ve listened to on the doorsteps in Caerphilly is very much telling us is to really redouble our efforts on that delivery and making a difference in people’s everyday lives. And that’s exactly what we’re determined to do.
Compass is a pro-Labour group that supports progressive, pluralist cooperation and PR, and its director, Neal Lawson, has issued this statement about the Caerphilly result.
The voters of Caerphilly have shown two things: they will vote tactically for a progressive alternative to Reform, but they no longer view Labour as progressive.
Labour needs a massive reset at every level before the elections next May, to become both progressive and pluralist, or they will be wiped out everywhere.
How share of vote has changed in Caerphilly since 2021
Here is a Guardian graphic showing how the share of the vote in Caerphilly has changed between 2021, when the last Senedd elections were held, and now.
In an interview on the Today programme, David Bull, the Reform UK chair, said that the Caerphilly result was remarkable for his party because it was only four years old. He said:
Of course, it’s disappointing for us [not to win], but you also have to look at what an extraordinary result it was for us, because we’re only four years old.
At the last election, we polled 1.7% and to go to a meteoric 36% I think, by any sort of metric, is absolutely amazing.
This is misleading. Technically Reform UK has only been operating since 2021. But it was not launched then as a new party; all that happened was that the Brexit party, which has been formed by Nigel Farage in 2018, changed its name in response to the fact that Brexit had been achieved.
Farage set up the Brexit party after Ukip, which he had led, on and off for more than a decade, turned very far-right under a new leader. But Ukip is now just an empty shell and many of the people who worked for it, and supported it, when Farage was leader are now lined up behind Farage.
In organisational terms, Reform UK is a new party. But Farage has been a prominent figure in UK politics for more than two decades, which means he is arguably Britain’s longest-serving political leader, not its newest.
Labour supporters of tactical voting are finding some consolation in their party’s defeat in Caerphilly. These are from the former cabinet minister Andrew Adonis (who started his career in the SDP).
Plaid win in Caerphilly is huge – a large protean anti-Refotm coalition which swing behind the strongest non-Labour candidate able to beat Farage. Even bigger given that 11% surviving Labour vote.
Talk of Reform winning the next election is wildly premature
Reform’s Russian treason scandal doubtless played a part in swinging undecideds against them. Farage’s 17 appearances on Russia Today, and blaming the Ukrainians for their own invasion, won’t go away
The 50.4% turnout in the Caerphilly by election was far higher than for the last Senedd election and nearly as high as at last year’s general election. It is a seismic electoral moment
Adonis has been emboldened by the figures highlighted at 6.52am.
The campaign group Stand Up to Racism has described the Caerphilly byelection result as “a major victory for everyone committed to opposing racism and intolerance”, Nation.Cymru is reporting.
Perhaps the most memorably moment in the byelection campaign came in a TV debate where the Reform UK candidate was challenged by a woman who said that only 2.9% of people in Caerphilly were born outside the UK, that she was one of them and that her family was suffering because of Reform’s anti-immigrant campaigning. She said:
I have never felt so unwelcome in my own home town as I do since your party came into Caerphilly with all the rhetoric you bring in. I have to say to my sons please don’t go there. Please don’t do this. I blame you for that.
In his Nation.Cymru report, Martin Shipton says:
There are no small boats landing asylum seekers on the Welsh coast, so there was the need to manufacture a row over the Welsh government’s Nation of Sanctuary policy.
Reform picked up on the fact that around £55m had been spent on the programme over several years and made this the main theme of its campaign, alleging that public money was being squandered on asylum seekers who, it was strongly implied, were illegal immigrants who had arrived by small boat. A lie.
In fact, the great bulk of the money was spent on resettling Ukrainian refugees. Even after this was pointed out, Reform continued to spread lies about the matter.
They hadn’t counted on the fightback from members of the Caerphilly Ukrainian community, led by an articulate woman called Yuliia Bond, who spoke and wrote passionately about how generously they had been welcomed by the people of the constituency and how they were making positive contributions to the local community.
The leftwing Labour group Momentum is also saying the Caerphilly result shows the party needs to change. Sasha Das Gupta, its co-chair, says:
The drop in Labour support in traditional heartlands can only be described as an existential threat to the Party’s future.
Labour will lose more strongholds across the country unless it starts implementing policies that will transform the lives of working class communities.
Caerphilly result shows Labour must listen to voters about ‘speeding up pace of change’, UK minister says
Nick Thomas-Symonds, a Cabinet Office minister and MP for Torfaen in south Wales, told Times Radio that Labour’s defeat in Caerphilly was “disappointing” and that the party had “a very tough fight” on its hands ahead of next year’s Senedd elections.
He said voters were sending a message about “speeding up” change.
We will listen to the thousands of conversations that we had in Caerphilly about speeding up the pace of change.
In an interview on the Today programme, Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid Cymru leader, admitted that some of the party’s support in Caerphilly came from people who were voting for his party to keep Reform UK out. He said:
Of course, there was an element of tactical voting. Certainly keeping Reform out was a part of that. I spoke with Labour members yesterday who were voting Plaid.
But that was not the main reason for Plaid’s victory, he said.
There was deep, deep disillusionment with Labour … Plaid’s postive message was being embraced …
It was people who supported Labour in the past, and other parties, who were seeing that positive offer from Plaid Cymru and coming to us, not begrudgingly, but embracing what we are saying as offering an alternative for government from May 2026.
Reform UK chair David Bull claims coming 2nd in Caerphilly on 36% ‘amazing’ result for his party
David Bull, the Reform UK chair, has described the Caerphilly byelection result as “amazing” for his party.
Even though Reform were beaten by Plaid, Bull said the rise in his party’s vote had been astonishing. He told BBC Breakfast.
In some ways disappointing for us, but actually it’s an amazing result on another hand, because actually we’re only four years old as a party.
At the last election, we got 1.7% and this morning we got 36%. That’s a meteoric rise for us, and I think actually pretty unprecedented in modern political history.
Bull referred to the “decimation” of Labour’s vote, and said the Conservatives were “wiped off that electoral map pretty much completely”.
Was Labour’s loss in Caerphilly ‘defeat for Starmerism’, or verdict on Welsh government?
There is some evidence that Caerphilly result will trigger a blame game Labour. In a post for the BBC’s blog, Gareth Lewis quoted a Labour source, speaking before the result was announced, as describing a loss in the byelection as “defeat for Starmerism not for first minister Eluned Morgan”.
There is probably an element of truth in this. Keir Starmer and the UK Labour party are more unpopular in Wales than Eluned Morgan and the Welsh Labour party.
But only up to a point; Welsh Labour is unpopular too. This is what Archie Bland says on this in his First Edition newsletter.
Part of the problem is specific to Wales: Labour has seen its support crater since the donations scandal that ended the premiership of first minister Vaughan Gething last year. But there is also a clear sense that the unpopularity of Keir Starmer’s Westminster government has rebounded on the Welsh party despite repeated attempts by leader Eluned Morgan to draw a line between the two.
The ominous precedent is what happened to Scottish Labour at Holyrood elections in 2007, when the Scottish National party emerged victorious, ending an era of Labour dominance. Nor will Labour be helped by a new voting system which it brought in itself, with every seat now being allocated on a proportional basis. And the scale of its defeat suggests that it is leaking votes to Reform as well as Plaid.
In his Substack byelection analysis Will Hayward also argues that Labour’s campaign in Caerphilly was terrible. He says:
If Labour sees this as anything other than the dire warning it is, they could end up with single digit seats in May. Their campaign was dire.
The woefully contradictory messaging on saving libraries (when it was a Labour council closing them) managed to both highlight their own failings and exhibit their total inability to take responsibility for any of the challenges Wales faces.
As I drove into Caerphilly for the count there was a giant electronic billboard that read “only Labour can stop Reform”.The last minute attempts to suggest that a vote for anyone other than them was a vote for Reform was divorced from reality.
Archie Bland has a very good assessment of the significance of the Caerphilly result in his First Edition briefing.
Here is an extract.
The Caerphilly result is by no means an aberration, either in Wales or the UK as a whole. It confirms a persistent pattern: a surge for Reform at the expense of the Conservative party, and progressive voters – often disenchanted with Labour – coalescing around whoever is best placed to defeat them.
The pollster Luke Tryl noted that this is likely to operate in complicated and locally varied ways: “Whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here, in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically,” he wrote on X. He also noted that this effect will matter more in the next general election than the Senedd one, because a proportional system allows smaller parties representation from a lower vote share.
The big picture, [Guardian reporter Steven Morris] said, is that success for either Reform or Plaid would have been unthinkable not long ago. “It’s an incredible shift when you stand back. Labour will hope that they can start to build back a bit before a general election. But in many seats, it’s going to be a bunfight.”
And here is the full article.
Comment ×